Modelling the amphibian chytrid fungus spread by connectivity analysis: towards a national monitoring network in Italy

Abstract The emerging amphibian disease, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is driving population declines worldwide and even species extinctions in Australia, South Central America. In order to mitigate effects of Bd on populations, high-exposed areas should be identified at the local scale effective conservation measures planned national level. This assessment actually lacking Mediterranean basin, particular Italy, one most relevant diversity hotspots entire region. this study, we reviewed available information conducted a 5-year molecular screening 1274 individual skin swabs belonging 18 species. Overall, found presence 13 total 56 known occurrence locations for peninsular Italy Sardinia. We used these climate data model habitat suitability current future climatic scenarios. then employed electric circuit theory landscape permeability diffusion Bd, using resistance map. With procedure, were able model, first time, pathways scale, characterising main towards with high probability occurrence. Thus, six protected that will become pivotal nationally-based strategic plan monitor, possibly contrast Italy.